This post’s title makes it sound like I’m about to gaze into my crystal ball and tell you what I see. Unfortunately, my crystal ball has been clouded for far too long, at least on the subject of where publishing, and the e-book market in particular, is heading. Instead, here are some thoughts that have tumbled out of my fevered cranium.
First, as Brian noted in his comment yesterday, statistics are slippery little devils that can, all too often, be manipulated to support a preconceived notion. That stats I quoted about e-book sales as they relate to sales of other book formats are, however, accurate…as far as they go, which may not be very far. After all, they are derived from reported sales of only 78 members of the AAP. And they address only revenue, ignoring sales unit volume that might be more interesting (since e-books typically sell for less than the same book in printed form).
Also, we must remember that the total e-bookmarket is not only growing steadily — currently far faster than sales for other formats — but is doubtless vastly underreported. A significant number of e-book sales pass completely under the book industry’s radar, never having been sold in print form nor reported to any agency compiling stats. It is difficult to estimate how many e-books (from how-to pamphlets to long-form novels) have been sold directly from the authors’ websites. Not that that difficulty has stopped a lot of folks from making those estimates, anyway.
I don’t know if e-books, whether delivered to a Kindle or a Sony reader or even a cell phone, represent the wave of the future. One thing I do know is that publishing is evolving. The bigger the publisher the more institutional resistance there is to that evolution.
Over the past decade, digital printing technology has brought true just-in-time inventory management to book publishing. Perhaps the new Espresson Book Machine will bring that capability right into the bookstore or even to your own desktop. Amazon’s Kindle certainly seems to have sparked an upsurge in e-book sales, although reliable stats are difficult to derive (Jeff Bezos remains tight-lipped on actual numbers).
And the ubiquitous World Wide Web itself has radically affected the way information is distributed, presented, and processed.
I am in no way suggesting that e-books represent the ultimate form of publishing. I am, however, suggesting that publishers — especially small and micro-publishers — should be prepared to let their customers choose how they want book content delivered. I firmly believe that the more options we present, the more sales we can gain. We are, in my opinion, in the information business not the book publishing business, if we want to survive.
At Slipdown Mountain Publications LLC, we began offering some of our books as e-books in January. Currently, we offer six Kindle editions and four PDF editions, in addition to our print book editions. For the January-June period, customer purchases of Kindle and PDF editions have accounted for 11% of total unit sales and 8% of total revenue.
Evaluating sales from comparable periods in previous years, I believe those e-book sales were in addition to, not instead of, print book sales. If we can consistently pull in almost 10% more revenue for such a small investment, I can see no downside to making them available. Once we have the print edition edited and prepped for the printer, converting it to an e-book format is quick and easy (whether Kindle or PDF).
Whether e-books are the wave of the future is not something I worry about. I will try to ride this wave as far as it will take us. If something else crops up that is as easy to implement and may provide yet another alternative for customers, we’ll give it a try.
If it doesn’t work, we can always stop. So, what’s the downside?